Humble Single Family Housing Inventory

Humble Single Family Inventory Report For January 19th 2009

This is the Humble homes for sale site’s third inventory post for the Humble, TX single family real estate market. We will be discussing the current months of inventory, average price and number of homes sold during the period. If you have questions or would like to add your own insights to this information, feel free in doing so in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

TOTAL BREAKDOWN OF HOUSING INVENTORY FOR THE HUMBLE HOMES MARKET

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
5.8	1,212	$160,850	585	$206,232

The Humble real estate market posted mixed results for this month. The good news is that inventory is down considerably, and the number of homes sold over the period did not fall excessively. The bad news is that the average price of single family homes fell over the period. As of January 19th, 2009, the Humble single family inventory came in at 5.8 months down from the 6.2 months posted around this same time last month. The decline in the average home sale price amounted to approximately $2,000 and could easily have been due to a decline in the number of sales in the higher price ranges.

The $80,000 and below price point had 4.1 months of inventory on January, 19 2009, which is a return back to the 4.1 months of inventory recorded November 25, 2008. This reinforces my assumptions that the leap in the inventory levels we saw in December was likely due to the seasonal drop in sales, while we saw the same number of foreclosures come onto the market. In addition to inventory levels declining over the period for the $80,000 and below price range, we also saw an increase in home sales in this price range over the period.

Inventory for the $80,000 to $150,000 price point came in at 5.2 months of inventory, which is a substantial decline from the 5.7 months of inventory noted for both December and November of last year. This level of inventory leaves us at a point considered by most to be a neutral market. The number of home sales and the average home sale price did not see a significant change from last month.

The $150,000 to $300,000 price range saw inventory creep down the same one tenth of a month of inventory to 6.2 months from the 6.3 months seen around this time in December. When it comes to total number of single family homes sales and average home sale price, this price range also held rather steady.

The Humble single family housing inventory for the $300,000 and above price point saw a much smaller drop in inventory than was witnessed from the month before. As inventory came in at 9.2 months of inventory on January, 19th 2009, two tenths of a month lower than the 9.4 posted at this time in December. However, it was not all good news for this price point. We saw a continuation of the drop in number of sales we have been experiencing as of late. In addition to this, we witnessed a notable drop in the average home sale price for this price range. The drop is likely due to the continued difficulty of obtaining a loan that does not fall within the FHA guidelines for a FHA loan. Data for each price range can be found in the tables below.

HUMBLE INVENTORY REPORT FOR 80,000 AND BELOW

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
4.1	173	$61,226	59	$65,915

HUMBLE INVENTORY REPORT FOR 80,000-150,000 PRICE POINT

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
5.2	523	$110,260	225	$115,461

HUMBLE INVENTORY DATA FOR THE 150,000-300,000 PRICE RANGE

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.2	385	$196,688	198	$210,820

HUMBLE HOUSING INVENTORY DATA FOR 300,000 AND ABOVE

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
9.2	135	$381,127	103	$476,257

Conclusion

My analysis of the period witnesses a peculiar result of falling inventory despite a drop in the average home sale price. Ultimately, the only logical explanation for this is that the increase in sales at the lowest price ranges and the decrease in the number of sales in the highest price ranges have reduced the reliability of the average home sale price as an indicator of the direction of home values. With inventory levels having declined to fall into either the neutral or seller’s market range, we should see prices hold rather steady for the $300,000 and below price ranges. However, the $300,000 and above price range remains above 9 months of inventory suggesting a buyer’s market and leaves me forecasting home value declines for this price point. This data set provides a positive outlook for one class of buyers and that is those looking to move up into a larger home or a home in a more desirable area. Those home owners that are interested in moving up should be able to gain fair market value for their home, and at the same time, should have an advantage in negotiations with sellers in the higher price ranges. This makes it a wonderful time to move up if one feels that they can afford to do so.