Humble Housing Market Inventory Report

Humble Housing Inventory Between $270,000 And $300,000

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
8.6	64	$285,046	46	$299,551

Inventory Level Explained

Earlier today a question came in on Trulia Voices. A potential home buyer had inquired about the current inventory of homes at $300,000. Since the inventory level for a single specific price is not very useful I have chosen to form a price point defined by $300,000 plus or minus ten percent, giving us the bounders of $270,000 to $330,000. Using this price range we get an average price of active homes at $299,551.
The Humble inventory level for this price range came in at 8.6 months of inventory which is considered buyer’s market territory. Nearly all economists would agree that an inventory level in excess of 7 months leaves buyers in the driver’s seat when negotiating a transaction. Furthermore we generally see price declines occur when inventory exceeds 9 months. With this price point sitting at 8.6 months of inventory I would be inclined to suggest that we may see price declines assuming that over the next couple of months we do not see the inventory absorbed.

Humble Single Family Inventory Report For March 4th 2009

Humble Housng Inventory Report

Thank you for reading the Humble homes for sale site’s inventory post for the Humble, TX single family real estate market. We will be discussing the current month’s inventory, average price and number of homes sold during the period. If you have questions or would like to add your own insights to this information, feel free to do so in the comments section at the bottom of the page.

TOTAL BREAKDOWN OF HOUSING INVENTORY FOR THE HUMBLE HOMES MARKET

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.3	1,165	$161,384	611	$208,871

Every price category we have been following saw inventory increases over the last month, except for the $80,000 and below price point. On March 4th, 2009, the total Humble housing inventory statistic came in at 6.3 months of inventory. This jump pushed the overall market out of true neutral market territory and into what many would call a buyer’s market. Seeing only slight increases in the total number of active listings, the substantial change in the inventory statistic must be due to a continued drop in the number of sales in the market place.

The $80,000 and below Humble housing market saw a big drop in months of inventory posting just 3.1 months compared to 4.1 months at the end of January. The continued absorption of inventory in this price point is largely due to investors gobbling up properties that make for excellent monthly cash flow when rented. I expect this trend to continue because of the very strong rental market that we are seeing all across the Houston metro area. In case this is the first one of my reports that you have read, inventory levels below the 5 month mark are considered to be a seller’s market in the eyes of economists.

Inventory for the $80,000 to $150,000 price point did not fair nearly as well as that for the $80,000 and below price range. This market posted 6 months of inventory, as of March 4th, 2009, which is up substantially from the 5.2 months noted in our last Humble housing market report. Even though 6 months of inventory misses being considered a buyer’s market, the sharp turn up in inventory does not sit well for sellers, however, it is a move in the right direction for buyers actively looking for a home. If this upward movement in inventory continues, buyers will soon see the upper hand in negotiations when entering into contract with sellers.

The $150,000 to $300,000 price range witnessed a move into what would be classified as a buyer’s market over the period. As of March 4th, 2009, housing inventory posted at 6.9 months compared to the more modest level of 6.2 months of inventory as seen at the end of January. So, if you are a buyer, you will likely see more strength at the negotiation table making it much more likely that you can get the seller to make repairs or pay a portion of your closing costs.

The $300,000 and above market saw a continued strong movement up in inventory moving to 9.9 months of inventory up from 9.2 months noted in the last Humble housing inventory report. This pushes this price point further into a deep buyer’s market, where it is very likely to see price drops. The price drops are in large part due to the major strength that buyers have in the negotiation process. I believe that this increase in inventory levels is mostly thanks to the troubles in garnering financing in the higher end housing market. Right now, it is pretty easy to obtain a home loan within the FHA loan limits (which is a loan amount of $271,500 in our area). Furthermore, these loans can be obtained for as little as 3.5% down. Once you move above this price range, financing tightens up, requiring a larger down payment. Once you surpass the $417,000 point for loan amounts into what is called the jumbo market, it gets very difficult to get a loan. Most lenders require as much as 25% down and are charging steep interest rates that run 2-3% higher than those that can be obtained below the $417,000 point.

HUMBLE INVENTORY REPORT FOR 80,000 AND BELOW

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
3.1	176	$60,343	46	$67,470

HUMBLE INVENTORY REPORT FOR 80,000-150,000 PRICE POINT

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.0	490	$111,063	243	$116,777

HUMBLE INVENTORY DATA FOR THE 150,000-300,000 PRICE RANGE

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.9	368	$196,006	213	$208,244

HUMBLE HOUSING INVENTORY DATA FOR 300,000 AND ABOVE

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
9.9	134	$381,922	110	$472,127

CONCLUSION

Increases in inventory for the market place should not be surprising since there is a lot of apprehension on the part of buyers right now. Some of this concern is well-founded. Some of it is not. It is highly unlikely that the Houston area will see large price drops like many of the other parts of the country, but those thinking about purchasing a house need to ensure that they do not over extend themselves. I am in the process of trying to reduce buyer worries about making a purchase by arranging insurance for all of my buyers against job loss. I have found an insurance product that will make ones mortgage payment if they were to get laid off. I am hoping that this will help those individuals that have a unique buying opportunity in this market. First time home buyers have a unique opportunity to receive an $8,000 tax credit, some of the lowest interest rates in 30 years, and plenty of inventory to choose from. Another group of buyer with a great opportunity are those that want to move up and own a home around the $150,000 and below mark, as they are likely to get top dollar for their homes, and then will be able to have an upper hand in negotiations when they go to purchase their new home in the higher price points in the market place. The one group I would strongly suggest that they wait if possible is those who are looking at downsizing, since they will likely have to give concessions to get their home sold, but then will end up not having a lot of negotiation strength when they go to purchase their next home. So, if you are selling a home in the upper price ranges and want to move into a smaller place, I would strongly suggest that you hold off until the market improves.

Humble Single Family Inventory Report For November, 25 2008

Humble Real Estate Market Report

This is the Humble Homes For Sale website’s first weekly post on Humble single family housing inventory. Each week, we will have a market report update detailing changes in the market and predictions on the direction of the Humble housing market, using trends in the housing inventory data.

Total Breakdown of Housing Inventory For The Humble Homes Market

 

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.2	1,254	$162,478	652	$206,715

 

Currently, the Humble single family real estate market is showing balance with 6.2 months of inventory on November, 25 2008. Most economists will agree that a real estate market with six months of inventory is considered to be neutral, being neither a buyer’s market nor a seller’s market. However, this overall market stability is not seen uniformly across price ranges.

The $80,000 and below price point had 4.1 months of inventory on November, 25 2008. Inventory levels of around 4 months or less is considered a seller’s market. With Humble housing inventory below $80,000 running just above 4 months, this indicates that sellers’ have the upper hand in negotiations and prices are likely to increase at or above the rate of inflation.

Humble single family housing inventory for the $80,000 to $150,000 price point came in at 5.7 months of inventory. This level of housing inventory shows stability at the price point, indicating that buyers and sellers hold nearly equal clout in negotiations. This suggests that prices should not decline and may appreciate at near the rate of inflation.

The $150,000 to $300,000 price range is currently carrying an inventory level of 6.4 months. At this inventory level, buyers begin to hold an edge in negotiations; however, home values should not see declines but, appreciation rates will likely stay below the rate of inflation. All in all, with the current credit troubles and turmoil in the countries housing market, these numbers still outperform 99% of the country.

The Humble single family housing inventory for the $300,000 and above price point shows substantial softening at 10.4 months of inventory. In the eyes of most economists, inventories of greater than 9 months is considered a weak market, where buyers have a huge advantage over sellers.  In addition, the majority of markets (excluding the luxury market) carrying in excess of 9 months tend to be flat or declining in value. This being the case, we may see declines in property values above the $300,000 price point.  

Humble Homes Inventory Breakdown For 80,000 And Below

 

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
4.1	165	$61,374	57	$65,749

 

Humble Homes Inventory Breakdown For 80,000-150,000 Price Range

 

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
5.7	543	$111,061	257	$115,454

 

Humble Homes Inventory Breakdown For 150,000-300,000 Price Range

 

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
6.4	414	$196,625	221	$211,486

 

Humble Homes Inventory Breakdown For 300,000 And Above

 

Months of Inventory	Sold Data – Prev. 1 Year		Current Active Data
	Number Sold	Average Price	Number Active	Average Price
10.4	135	$386,996	117	$466,841

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Humble single family real estate market below the $300,000 price point is very healthy and should continue to see appreciation.  However, the $300,000 and above market could very well see price declines in the near future. The weakness in the $300,000 and above market is likely due to instability of the credit markets which leads to difficulties in obtaining financing on properties that require a mortgage amount exceeding the FHA loan limits. Financing within the FHA loan limits is not difficult to gain, but there has been a substantial tightening in funds available for buyers seeking loan limits above the FHA loan limit of $274,000.

Information contained in this post was acquired from the Houston Association of Realtors via the multiple listing service database and archive.  Data should be considered reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate.

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